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The Reporter: Florida�s Jews may put Bush over the top in U.S. elections
Ira Rifkin/Washington
The 2000 American presidential election was decided in Florida, and this year�s may be, too. But instead of hanging chads, the deciding factor this time, according to many political observers, could be the state�s roughly 600,000 Jewish voters, even though they constitute only some 5 percent of the electorate. If enough cast their ballots for President George W. Bush, they could give him Florida�s critical 27 electoral votes and a second White House term.
Florida�s Jewish voters are generally older and, despite the image of the limited-income pensioner, financially better off and a bit more conservative than American Jews in general, notes John C. Green, a University of Akron political scientist specializing in religious-group voting patterns. Green says the president�s strong support for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon�s tough response to Palestinian attacks could give him as much as 25-28 percent of Florida�s Jewish vote, enough to make the difference in an election that virtually everyone predicts will be extraordinarily tight.
If the Florida vote does match Green�s prediction, it will top the 20-25 percent that a succession of polls say the president is likely to get from Jewish voters nationally.. Another circumstance that may help swing additional Jewish votes to Bush is that Florida�s estimated 100,000 Muslim and Arab voters are vocally supporting Kerry because of anger over Bush�s Iraq and Israel policies and the increasingly tough scrutiny they�ve faced under the administration�s homeland-security measures.
Both campaigns are expending considerable resources in Florida in the election�s final days, scheduling candidate appearances and sending high-profile Jewish supporters to southeast Florida�s Jewish enclaves; former New York mayor Ed Koch for the Republicans, and Sen. Joe Lieberman and Cameron Kerry, John�s Jewish-convert brother, for the Democrats.
Nor are Floridians living in Israel (and elsewhere overseas) being overlooked, particularly by the Bush camp. Gary King, a Harvard University political scientist who analyzed the 2000 Florida absentee ballot votes -- which turned Gore�s initial in-state lead of 202 into a 537-ballot Bush victory -- says it is "reasonable" to assume that the majority of Jewish Floridians in Israel favor Bush. But, King says, no accurate figures exist on how many Floridians live in Israel or how many vote in U.S. elections. "It�s possible that the vote from Israel will even be the make-it-or-break-it factor," says King.
Although Bush is considered likely to improve on the 19 percent of Jewish votes he received overall in 2000, a recent American Jewish Committee poll has supported assertions of Kerry�s wide lead over Bush among Jewish voters. AJC�s late-September poll shows Kerry getting 69 percent of the Jewish vote nationally, with 24 percent going to Bush, 5 percent undecided and 3 percent voting for independent challenger Ralph Nader. Strikingly, the survey found support for Bush weakest among Jews over 60.
Despite the perception of Green and others that Bush�s much-touted outreach to Jews has fallen short, a leading Jewish Republican insists the opposite is true. "We�re making good progress. We�re making the Democrats spend time, money and energy on protecting their base while picking up votes here and there," says Michael Lebovitz, the Bush campaign�s liaison to Jewish voters. "We�re on the offensive."
Lebovitz says the president�s campaign is "particularly heartened" by polls showing Bush the clear favorite of Orthodox voters. He admits that Orthodox Jews comprise less than 10 percent of U.S. Jewry. But here again, what�s most important is "picking up a few votes here, a few votes there, and adding them up for them to mean something," he says.
After Florida, three other states with sizable Jewish communities -- Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania -- are mentioned as undecided states that could tip the election. Both Jay Footlik, Kerry�s prime Jewish outreach staffer, and Lebovitz say that despite the emphasis on Florida, their campaigns won�t be overlooking Jewish voters anywhere. "We�re taking nothing for granted," says Footlik.
November 1, 2004
Reporter
Israel gives intelligence briefings to alleged smugglers of Mig engines to Saddam
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