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Not Just a Gimmick?
Leslie Susser
(September 25, 2000) How seriously can anyone take Ehud Barak's revolutionary civil agenda when, to paraphrase one of his critics, he doesn't have enough votes to amend the menu in the Knesset cafeteria? The poll results have left Labor leaders grey-faced. They always knew that their failed alliance with the ultra-Orthodox Shas party had cost them secular voters but, until recently, they had no idea how many.
Now they have the figures, from their own in-house survey-meisters, and the numbers are devastating. Their survey points to Labor becoming one more bit player among several parties on the secular left, or collapsing completely. If elections were held now, the poll indicates, Labor would lose eight of its 23 Knesset seats, while secular rivals Meretz and Shinui would gain seven seats between them.
For Labor bosses, that�s all the more frightening because Shas�s exit from the coalition, along with the National Religious Party and the immigrant Yisrael ba-Aliya, makes the prospect of immediate elections all too real. And at the start of September, hopes were fading that a quick deal with the Palestinians would allow Labor to run on the popularity of peace.
Another recent poll has more bad news for Prime Minister Ehud Barak. Published in the Russian language daily Vesti, it shows that Barak�s support among the huge immigrant community has plummeted to 17 percent � compared to the 58 percent he received in the May 1999 election. Barak�s once and perhaps future rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, has bounced back to 53 percent among Russian-speakers, the Vesti poll shows. Again, Labor analysts argue, the collapse stems mainly from Barak�s perceived surrender to the ultra-Orthodox.
Barak�s strategists wasted no time when they first saw those numbers in August. They advised a swift policy switch to domestic issues that matter to secular Israelis. And so Barak announced his new civil agenda: he�d move to complete Israel�s half-formed constitution, introduce civil marriage, propose new forms of national service for all, including the ultra-Orthodox, make sure that English, math and civics are taught in all state-funded schools � including ultra-Orthodox ones � and dismantle the Religious Affairs Ministry.
Barak got the poll figures on Friday; by Saturday night, just after the end of Shabbat, he was announcing his new program on TV. The reviews stank. To many Israelis it looked like a desperate gimmick. The Likud�s Meir Sheetrit�s description of Barak as a drowning man clutching at a straw reflected the mood not only in the opposition but among many of the prime minister�s supporters.
BUT BARAK AND THE people around him insist he�s absolutely determined to implement the new agenda. They say he always had a two-phase strategy: first make peace, using a coalition that included Orthodox parties, then implement ambitious domestic reforms, possibly shifting political allies between the stages. Yossi Beilin, who as justice minister is coordinating work on the new agenda, explains: �As long as Shas was part of our peace coalition, our hands were tied. Now that they�ve bolted, there�s no reason to wait.�
What Beilin hardly needs to mention is that Barak is shifting from phase one to phase two without achieving a peace accord. Indeed, the switch in strategy underlines the stalemate Barak faces in trying to complete phase one.
The prime minister hasn�t written off the chance of religious support for his new program. Diaspora Affairs Minister Michael Melchior, leader of the moderate religious Meimad Party and himself an Orthodox rabbi, is expected to play the middleman, mediating between secular and religious power blocks over the new program.
To get the ball rolling, Barak has set up two committees: one consisting of Beilin, Melchior and Labor�s leading political theorist, Internal Security Minister Shlomo Ben Ami, to draft a paper on the kind of Israel the Barak government hopes to build. It includes proposals for redistributing wealth to narrow the dangerous gap between rich and poor. But a key part deals with a new modus vivendi between religious and secular Israelis, replacing the unworkable status quo of today. That paper will soon be presented to the public for debate. Says Melchior: �It will not be rammed down people�s throats, but discussed on platforms all over the country. We intend to hold a dialogue with all the political parties.� All, including the ultra-Orthodox, he claims, are ready to talk.
The other committee, consisting of Beilin and legal gurus Dan Meridor of the Center Party and Meretz�s Amnon Rubinstein, is in charge of putting the constitution before the Knesset. For Labor, it�s win-win: If the Likud supports the process, Labor gets credit; if the Likud gives in to the pressure of Orthodox parties and votes against, it will lose secular support.
Over the years, pieces of a constitution have been ratified by the Knesset, in the form of so-called �basic laws.� The consensus among pro-constitution lawmakers is that four more basic laws are needed: one guaranteeing freedom of speech and assembly, another on the individual�s rights before the law, a third on social rights (such as the right to strike, and the right to health care and a pension) � all wrapped up with a final constitutional article requiring ordinary laws to be consistent with the basic laws, and giving the power of judicial review to a constitutional court.
Proposals for these remaining basic laws have been fine-tuned over the past few months by Deputy Attorney General Joshua Schoffman, an Orthodox jurist and veteran human-rights activist. The new versions are close to those promoted in the past by the Likud, which would therefore have a hard time opposing their substance.
Still, the question is whether Barak can create a parliamentary majority for the package. Knesset Member Moshe Gafni of the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party, which opposes the proposed constitution, is confident that he can�t. At present,� Gafni says, �Barak doesn�t even have the backing to pass a change in the Knesset cafeteria�s menu.� On paper, he�s right: Barak�s coalition now includes just 40 of the Knesset�s 120 members.
But Barak does have allies, in two groups of Knesset members pushing for completion of the constitution. One is led by the Likud�s Michael Eitan and is backed by the Constitution for Israel public-action organization; the other is headed by Eliezer (Cheetah) Cohen of the right-wing, mainly Russian-immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu party. Both groups include Knesset members from a wide range of parties. But their members may lack freedom of action, if their parties decide to oppose the constitution.
The religious parties say they�re not against completing the remaining pieces of a bill of rights � but they do oppose empowering the Supreme Court to interpret it. In recent years, the Court has repeatedly angered Orthodox pols, who see the court as overly activist and anti-religious.
IN THE MEANTIME, SAYS BEILIN, the government should implement any other pieces of its new agenda that it can. The first step came at the start of September, when the cabinet voted unanimously to dismantle the Religious Affairs Ministry. By the end of the Knesset�s summer recess in October, Beilin hopes to see the religion clause removed from ID cards � again through executive action. And he plans to introduce legislation under which Israelis who cannot or do not want to be married by the state rabbinate can register for �couplehood� in a civil court. These marriages-by-any-other-name wouldn�t be recognized by rabbinic authorities � meaning that they could also be dissolved by civil courts, without need for a religious divorce.
Recent surveys show that while 75 percent of Israelis back the civil agenda, less than 40 percent believe the prime minister is serious about implementing it. To revive his flagging political fortunes, he�ll have to convince a skeptical electorate that he means business.
Take the almost 1 million Russian immigrants. So far, says Roman Bronfman, leader of the left-leaning immigrant party Democratic Choice, most immigrants see Barak�s initiative as grandstanding. �If it proves to be a grandiose program that has no chance of being implemented, it will only make Barak�s already serious credibility problem worse,� he warns.
But if Barak can implement key items � especially dropping religion from ID cards and creating an alternative to religious marriage � Bronfman believes Barak could turn things around. �250,000 mixed (Jewish-Christian) Russian families stand to benefit by these two initiatives,� he says. �And they are all in the secular camp, and could easily swing back to supporting Barak.�
And what if there is a breakthrough on the peace front? Barak, Beilin and Ben Ami do not rule out reconstituting the coalition with Shas if the ultra-Orthodox party is ready to back a peace deal. And that, Beilin concedes, would mean deferring the reform package indefinitely. Indeed some pundits argue that raising the civil agenda was at least partly meant to goad Shas into rejoining the coalition. No wonder the public remains skeptical about the prime minister�s intentions. The onus of proof is clearly on Ehud Barak.
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