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Still Waters on the Nile
E.S. Mckee / Cairo
 GROOMING GAMAL: President Mubarak and son (left)
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President Hosni Mubarak is a man of few surprises. His late-September reelection to a fourth term, with 93.8 percent of the vote, was predictable enough, given that he stood unopposed. And while on the eve of the referendum Mubarak had hinted of "some changes" during his forthcoming six-year term, Egyptians who�d been hoping for a breath of political fresh air have already gotten the message: The static waters of Egyptian political life - lauded as stability by the top brass - are unlikely to be stirred fundamentally any time soon.
Mubarak, 71, a former Air Force chief whose forces daringly took on Israel in 1973, has held office since October 1981 when, as vice president, he took over following the assassination of Sadat.
The vice presidency has been vacant ever since. In the run up to the election, however, there was speculation that the aging but fit Mubarak was about to change that status quo and take the opportunity to open a door to new political forces. And not just any forces. The rumors had it that Mubarak�s son, Gamal, was about to set up a new party called Al-Islah, or the Reform Party, under the patronage of his father, and that President Mubarak would catapult Gamal directly into the country�s top political echelons.
Gamal, a fast-talking, handsome bachelor in his 30s, was looking like an eligible candidate for the vice presidency. It certainly seemed as if he was being groomed for something. The young Mubarak, an American University in Cairo-educated banker, has recently toured several countries in his professional capacity and as a member of many of Egypt�s businessmen�s associations and lobby groups. He has been attending formal functions with his father and has addressed the public on several occasions. At the Euromoney Conference in Cairo in September, he presented his views on the Egyptian economy in flawless English, alongside the Minister of Economy Youssef Boutros Ghali. Thought to be more charismatic and genteel than his father, Gamal is often seen inviting ordinary Egyptians in to air their complaints to him in his capacity as the president�s son.
Some opposition columnists went so far as to suggest that Gamal would be offered a cabinet post, perhaps the relatively minor youth portfolio.
The older Mubarak has now put paid to such speculation. In a recent interview on Egyptian TV, he declared that he had no intention of setting up a new party or come near changing the constitution. Nor, he stated, was he about to allow Gamal to launch into politics.
As if to underscore the principle of "stability," a few days after the referendum Mubarak named 67-year-old Atef Obeid to the post of prime minister. The appointment of the conservative Obeid, who was previously in charge of the country�s ambitious but slow-moving privatization program and who�s been in government since 1984, is considered one of the most humdrum choices in recent years.
Nor has he come up with any drastic cabinet changes, sticking fast to the Mubarak line. Almost all the key, by now familiar faces have kept their positions - Foreign Minister Amr Moussa, Interior Minister Habib el-Adly, Defense Minister Hussein Tantawi and Information Minister Safwat el-Sharif, one of Mubarak�s staunchest propagandists who came to office in 1982. The cabinet changes Obeid has made are largely cosmetic. Obeid said that his choice of ministers was based on "ability, experience, success in leadership and integrity." Needless to say, Gamal Mubarak was not among his choices.
The priorities Obeid has laid out for himself also have a familiar ring. He has mentioned unemployment, solving the housing problem, improving health-care services and training the young to be "the leaders of the future" - all goals heard often before.
In reality, few Egyptians would have expected anything more. Soon after the referendum Ibrahim Nafei, editor of the Al-Ahram daily and a Mubarak confidant, wrote that calls for political reform were largely based on "imaginary ideas and less pragmatic foundations." Expanding and deepening Egyptian democracy, he went on, needed more time before it could happen "in full swing."
What Mubarak is offering, for now, is the idea of a "national dialogue" that would allow different sectors of Egyptian society to come, talk and form a "national consensus" in the new presidential term. "Such a dialogue might take place in the form of a conference that would draw the picture of tomorrow�s Egypt," suggested Alieldeen Hilal, a Cairo University professor, just a few days before being appointed Minister of Youth - one of the few new faces in the cabinet.
Mubarak has repeatedly said that the longer an official stays in office, the better and more fruitful his term would be. His own policy has been to weed out any force that threatened to shake up the country or undermine stability in any way. Martial law, in place since Sadat�s assassination, is justified by officials as a means of keeping the lid on Islamic militancy.
Neither Mubarak nor Obeid feel much pressure to move toward political change: The hopes and demands for restyling come almost exclusively from "polite" political activists who hardly command a popular following, or from detached, passive intellectuals.
Most Egyptians have different priorities. They are more intent on seeing further results from the eight-year-old economic reform program - and it is in the sphere of economic liberalization that Mubarak�s hinted "changes" are likely to come.
The capital�s 14 million residents already feel the benefit of some mega-scale projects, like the expanding Cairo Underground, and extensions to the Sixth of October Bridge which runs over the Nile and winds over the city streets.
The country�s annual per capita income has officially risen from $600, at the inception of the economic reform program in 1991, to $1,400, and inflation has dropped to 3.6 percent from 20 over the same period. Growth is expected to reach six percent by the end of this fiscal year. While Obeid�s privatization program is credited for some of the economic upswing, he has always been under fire for his sluggish pace.
"Listen," said Ahmed Abdel Aziz, a 34-year-old Cairo accountant, "it�s not wise to push for political reform. Let�s stick to the economy first, and that will bring about better conditions in the future."
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