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The Back Page: 'We forecast 10,000 killed -- in the best-case scenario'
Ina Friedman
Three reports issued by the state comptroller (in 1990, 1993, and 2000) and the report of the Zeiler Commission (appointed to examine building safety in the wake of May 2001�s Versailles wedding-hall collapse in Jerusalem, in which 23 people died) have decried an astonishing lack of attention to this issue.
Yaacov Heichal, chairman of the inter-ministerial Steering Committee for Earthquake Preparedness until December 2002 and now an adviser to the Knesset Interior and Environment Committee, tells The Report that much thought has actually been invested in earthquake protection, resulting in detailed proposals for improvement. What�s missing is any sign of concrete action.
The Jerusalem Report: How has the Steering Committee assessed the potential damage from a major quake?
We forecast 10,000 people killed, up to 22,000 seriously injured, 9,000-12,000 collapsed buildings, and 200,000-250,000 people left homeless by a quake of 6.5 or higher on the Richter scale whose epicenter is in the Jordan Valley. And that�s a best-case scenario. If a serious quake occurs along the Yagur fault and affects the Haifa Bay area, casualties can run much higher because of the concentration of hazardous substances in the petrochemical industry there. These estimates were published in 2000. Now I think they are too low. The overall damage to the economy will be about $50 billion, including everything from reconstruction costs to the loss of jobs and National Insurance payments to widows, orphans and the disabled.
Will families that have insured their homes against earthquakes at least collect money to rebuild?
Even if every apartment in the country were insured privately -- which isn�t the case -- after a major quake the insurance companies will promptly go bankrupt. We proposed the creation of a nationwide insurance fund that would accumulate $100 million every year. But it will take 50 years to accrue enough money to cover the predicted damage. And along the way, the Finance Ministry may be tempted to "borrow" from this fund to meet more immediate "emergency" needs. So my rough guess is that when an earthquake occurs, most people won�t see a penny from insurance.
What about preventive measures, like reinforcing older buildings?
The Steering Committee drew up a national zoning regulation to upgrade old structures, which has yet to be approved. It requires the government and local authorities to examine and strengthen all public buildings that fall under their responsibility. Public housing -- some 80,000 apartments -- must be checked and reinforced by the public or government companies that own them (Amidar and Amigur). The reinforcement of private commercial facilities, such as factories, hotels and wedding halls, will be the responsibility of their owners.
And what progress has been made?
The government began surveying its buildings. The public housing companies began checking buildings in Kiryat Shmonah [a high-risk city] and then stopped. We�ve proposed that the examination and reinforcement of commercial facilities be a prerequisite for renewing a business license. And we tried to persuade insurance companies to demand this for renewal of their policies, but that failed.
We also proposed giving homeowners incentives to reinforce their co-ops. The problem lies mostly with apartment buildings constructed on columns. In more prosperous areas, we suggested that the tenants of these co-ops build apartments to fill the void on the ground floor, as the income from their sale will more than cover the construction costs. In places where this void cannot be filled, concrete-reinforced "security rooms" can be built at the building�s four corners, from the ground to the roof. While reinforcing the building, this solution will add 25 square meters to each existing apartment, for which the owners would be exempt from property-improvement tax. In less prosperous areas, the residents can be offered low-cost, long-term mortgages to effect these solutions. All of this still requires approval.
Can we be sure that at least recently constructed buildings conform to the earthquake-protections standards?
The gravest problem is the failure to enforce building laws. Today most of the people responsible for this -- the city engineer in a municipal area -- are architects, rather than engineers, and are themselves incapable of evaluating a building plan. Even most of the engineers who sign off on these plans don�t know how to make structures compatible with the latest standards because, until two years ago, only engineering students in a master�s degree program -- and only those who chose to -- studied the subject of earthquakes. Now we�ve made this a required course for BA students.
But what�s actually being done?
The Knesset Interior and Environment Committee is about to hold a meeting to ask the relevant officials precisely that question.
Why is there so much complacency about earthquakes?
Because every mayor, every prime minister and every minister assures himself that the disaster won�t hit on his watch. And our citizens likewise bury their heads in the sand. Until people understand that elected officials are directly responsible for ensuring that things are done properly, nothing at all will come of all these plans.
March 8, 2003
Middle East
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