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Ehud Ya'ari: A Sinai Rendezvous
Ehud Ya'ari

Mubarak had already started laying the ground for a change in line vis-�-vis Sharon several months before the elections

The telephone call that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak placed to Ariel Sharon the morning after the elections was not one of those routine courtesy ones that every victor at the ballot box receives. Rather, it was a signal that Sharon�s "excommunication" has come to an end.

Egypt is changing tack: Instead of systematic denunciation of the man -- Mubarak himself has publicly said Sharon is only interested in war and blamed him for serving an Egyptian envoy "only with sausages" -- and despite a longstanding refusal to meet with Sharon, Cairo is making a switch toward reconciling itself with the necessity of trying to reach an understanding with him. Mubarak is not interested in another few years of bitter sterility, and when the extent of the Likud victory dawned on him, he realized that Sharon is not going to be leaving center stage any time soon.

The pair will probably meet after the new government has been formed. Mubarak is standing by his refusal to come to Jerusalem, and Sharon, for his part, will not insist on an invitation to Cairo. The Sharm el-Sheikh resort or some other corner of the Sinai peninsula will, therefore, provide the setting for the public reconciliation between the two, who have more than a few issues to discuss.

In fact, Mubarak had already started laying the ground for a change in line vis-�-vis Sharon several months before the elections. One of his confidants, Ibrahim Nafie, the chief editor of the Al-Ahram daily, explained in a pioneering editorial last November that Egypt must find a way of living with reality, however unsavory that reality is, and recommended that Egypt should strive toward a joint diplomatic initiative with Sharon. It was a clear sign that Egypt was not pinning its hopes on any imminent Labor party comeback.

Next came Mubarak�s embarrassing failure to broker an agreement between Fatah, Hamas and the rest of the Palestinian factions for a unilateral and comprehensive halt to violent actions for the period of one year. The Egyptians invested a huge amount of effort in the attempt. They hoped to announce a declaration of an unconditional cease-fire on the eve of the Israeli elections, but in the end they came up against resistance not only from Hamas, but first and foremost from Yasser Arafat. That was the end of the initiative to create a Palestinian fait accompli that would demand reciprocation from Sharon.

The third phase in the Egyptian rethink regarding Sharon came in the form of a push by the Americans, including Daniel Kurtzer, the U.S. ambassador in Tel Aviv. He visited Mubarak in Cairo, where he had previously served as ambassador, and encouraged the Egyptian president to find an alternative approach -- instead of reaching an understanding with Arafat, to try to reach one with Sharon first.

Ephraim Halevy, the head of Israel�s National Security Council, and others conveyed the message to Cairo that as far as Sharon is concerned, there is something to talk about. They offered as proof the promise that Avigdor (Yvette) Lieberman, the head of the right-wing National Union who angers the Egyptians no end with his talk of bombing the Aswan High Dam, will not be a minister in the new government.

Terrified about the possible aftershocks of a war in Iraq, the Egyptians are seeking to pacify the front on their own doorstep. They fear major embarrassment if the Israeli army is forced, in the end, to take over the Gaza Strip. They have the impression that the Bush administration will avoid confrontation with Sharon and will stick to its demand for the de-Arafat-ization of the Palestinian Authority.

Mubarak�s son Gamal (known as Jimmy to his friends) and his political adviser, Dr. Osama El-Baz, have come back from Washington with no illusions as to Sharon�s standing there.

The Egyptian president wants to repeat what he did with the late Yitzhak Rabin in 1992. Then, the two agreed between themselves on the idea of "Gaza First," which eventually developed into the Oslo Accords. Now, the Egyptians are interested in a formula for getting out of the intifada, by means of providing the Israelis and the Palestinians with guarantees leading to negotiations for a Palestinian state within "provisional borders."

As far as Sharon is concerned, outflanking Arafat with the help of Mubarak -- who�ll get Saudi and Jordanian support -- is a prize worth sweating for. Once Mubarak has made a gesture, Sharon would be wise to make one in return.

February 24, 2003

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