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Ehud Ya'ari: Babysitting the PA

The more the executive authority moves out of the Chairman�s office and into the court of the international observers, in every sense, the better.

A babysitting regime for the Palestinian Authority has been set up under the misnomer of "Task Force" by the Quartet in its July 17 meeting in New York. Given the ambiguous verbosity of the joint statement issued by the United States, the United Nations, Russia and the European Union at the meeting�s end, however, it is far from clear exactly what the plan involves. Will this be a prolonged, hands-on babysitting arrangement that lays down the codes of behavior? Or a kind of drop-in system where the caregiver stops by now and again to ensure that "everything�s OK," without challenging or changing the rules of the house?

In other words, will the PA reforms be subject to close scrutiny or distant supervision? The lack of clarity on this point tempts Arafat to believe that he can get away with a little cosmetic surgery, and not have to perform a heart transplant on the PA, as one leading Palestinian academic recently put it.

Arafat views the international community�s pressure on him to reform the PA as a series of hurdles around which he will have to navi-gate in order to reach the finishing line: an international stamp of approval for the establishment of a Palestinian state, without first having to reach a comprehensive peace agreement with Israel.

Arafat�s obedient servant, Dr. Nabil Shaath, the fastest tongue in the East, has already explicitly stated that international supervision of the reform process can basically be translated as the allocation of funds according to the list to be supplied by the PA. The demand for reforms, as perceived by those in Arafat�s circle, means improving the operation of the PA in its current format, not a change of regime.

Only a babysitter system with a presence on the ground, which adopts an interventionist mode of operation, can bring any real results over time. What won�t work is an arrangement that spreads over 18 pages, like the last version of the EU�s proposal for reform, with a list of tasks Arafat is supposed to perform as the international bureaucrats sit by and wait to tick them off one by one, as soon as possible. That is a sure recipe for a wool-over-the-eyes pretense of reform. Kofi Annan once mentioned putting 14,000 international officials in the PA territories. Well, this time he is on the mark.

It is absolutely in Israel�s interest to strengthen and expand the embryonic oversight regime just created by the Quartet, even if there is a real risk involved. Israel is not a part of the new supervisory structure. As such, it could very well face demands on itself in the near future, for example regarding the frozen PA funds being held by Israel or the presence of the IDF in the Palestinian cities.

Nevertheless, the risk -- if not the certainty -- of clashes with the Quartet in the future is no reason not to strive to develop the babysitting regime into a real, de facto trusteeship.

The goal should be to have the Task Force take on the role of guiding the reforms and manage them from close up, instead of serving as mere observers of the changes being made by Arafat appointees. The more the executive authority moves out of the Chairman�s office and into the court of the international observers, in every sense, the better.

Otherwise, we can look forward to a display of window dressing that Arafat would hope to keep up for no more than four months, after which he will seek permission to organize himself a re-election early next year that will shut up President Bush once and for all.

What the international community urgently needs to supply is a concrete, practical definition of what re-forms are required, with a realistic time frame for their implementation. For example, what does the creation of an independent judiciary entail in practice? Where will the new judges come from? Not to mention the complexities when it comes to reforming the security apparatuses. Will the same commanders who joined in terror fight against it? How exactly will this psychological revo-lution come about?

Institutional changes will not be enough without a change in PA policies. And whoever is still hoping that Arafat will somehow transform himself... don�t hold your breath. For the reforms to be realized, the primary requirements are time -- and a full-time nanny.