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War
Hirsh Goodman

The intifada is over. The rules of the game have changed.

AROUND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, END OF FEB- ruary, first week of March, in 1996 four suicide bombs ripped through Jerusalem, Ashkelon and Tel Aviv, killing dozens. It was long after the Oslo Accords had been signed; after Yasser Arafat had shaken Yitzhak Rabin�s hand on the White House lawn; after Arafat had talked about the "peace of the brave"; after Arafat had returned to Gaza and after he was allowed to establish a security force that was bigger, per capita, than Saddam Hussein�s. Then, when it was convenient, Arafat turned the terror off. The result was that Shimon Peres lost the elections, Benjamin Netan-yahu was elected and Arafat did not have to confront the real challenges of making peace. That was back in the days when Arafat still used violence as a tactical course-corrector in order to navigate his people back to Palestine in stages.

Now, over 17 months into this current conflict, there is no question: Arafat has made a strategic decision to channel the full force of Palestinian violence into a war of liberation against Israel, deflecting his people�s deep frustrations away from himself and directing them against a country he perceives as beginning to crack, whose once-invincible army has turned out to be a beached whale.

The charade has ended. Arafat is fighting for 1948 not 1967. Worse, he is actually beginning to believe that those goals can be achieved. He smells blood, probably because he spends too much time listening to Israel radio and taking in the endless litany of self-flagellation by politicians, the mothers of army reservists and pundits seri-ously. He probably also believes the Palestinian myth that the West Bank and Gaza are Lebanon and that Israel will, ultimately, pull out of them unilaterally and that the Israel Defense Forces are about to go to pieces.

Not unusually, he is wrong on all counts. Yes, having an entire family wiped out by a suicide bomber in Saturday night�s attack in Jerusalem is horrifying and depressing. And spending Purim with your children at a carnival in a mall wondering when Bugs Bunny is going to explode is nerve-wracking. And the country�s confidence in both its leadership and the military has been shaken with 22 soldiers being killed in less than a month in a series of well-planned and well-executed Palestinian attacks, with a Merkavah tank being destroyed and, in one especially distressing case, seven soldiers and three civilians being picked off and killed by a lone Palestinian sniper using a 60-year-old rifle and just 30 bullets. This sniper also managed to critically injure three others before making off back to Palestinian territory unapprehended, leaving the army humbled and the country furious.

But though we may well understand why a war might suit him right now, there are several things Arafat should take into account. The Israel Defense Forces will be taken by surprise once, twice and even three times. But it is a strong, well-disciplined, well-armed, well-educated and highly sophisticated army. Now that the battle lines have been drawn, after months of obfuscation as to what type of conflict we were having here, the army will readapt to the new realities. And as for those who think that sophistication of weapons does not count in low-intensity urban conflict, they should think again. The side that has night-vision, heat-detecting capabilities, armored vehicles, helicopters, missiles, advanced intelligence-gathering capabilities, smart weapons and the dozens of other elements that apply, has the clear advantage. Ask the Taliban.

This is a war the Palestinians are going to lose and with painful cost. Arafat, yet again, is about to land a terrible blow on his people. He has gone too far. Twenty-two Israeli dead, dozens more wounded, many critically, in the space of barely 12 hours on March 2 and 3, over 50 people killed in one month, is no longer Palestinian protest. The intifada is over. The rules of the game have changed. That Fatah gunmen and bombers are now leading the fight makes Arafat directly responsible. This is no longer "elements that cannot be controlled." The Palestinians have injected mortars, rockets, mines, anti-tank weapons, grenades and other weapons into this conflict. These are not the stones of the first intifada. Bombs carried by suicide bombers are ravaging Israeli cities.

Until now Israel has responded like an occupier, not as an army that is defending its country in time of war. It now has to respond by using its absolute military advantage to bring this war to a speedy end, with minimal casualties, and the Palestinians to the realization that they are paying a bitter price for Arafat�s unrealizable dream of an Israel destroyed. The Kassam Two rocket may have gone to the heads of Arafat and Tanzim boss Marwan Barghouti. It does not pose an existential threat to Israel. Neither do suicide bombers.

That there is no long-term military solution to the Israeli-Palestinian dispute is probably true. Arafat, however, has decided otherwise. Until he or his people change their minds, this is a war we have to fight and we have the means and the brains to fight it well. Real victory will come, though, in the form of a negotiated deal to end the conflict. And Israel has the strength to make that happen.