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Ehud Ya'ari: Marking Time, Regressively

Arafat sees chaos as the ultimate answer to Israel�s threat of unilateralism

What should have been clear from the outset is slowly turning into fact. None of the points below should come as any surprise.

�The security fence Israel is building will not be constructed according to the original route dictated by Prime Minister Sharon. Toward the summer, if work continues at the current pace, the wire curtain will stretch around the northern West Bank as far as Jerusalem roughly along the Green Line, without taking in Ariel and the large settlements of western Samaria as Sharon decreed. The portion of the fence that is meant to seal in Gush Etzion from the south is on hold, awaiting developments at the international court in The Hague. The rest of the southern fence is at any rate less crucial, and can wait.

� No cease-fire will come into effect, it seems, without another severe round of confrontation with Hamas. The hudna talks shepherded by Egypt have run into a stone wall. The last Palestinian Authority draft papers on ways to calm the atmosphere have been cold-shouldered by Israel and the Americans. The PA isn�t taking any significant steps to deal with the terror networks, other than a general instruction from Yasser Arafat not to direct attacks for the time being against cities inside Israel.

� Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala) has turned out to be prime minister of a paralyzed, incapable and inactive government. Only a last minute loan from the Arab Bank in Amman enabled him to pay December�s salaries. He has no influence over the security apparatuses and he is now thinking, in consultation with his close aides, about whether he wouldn�t be better off returning to his old post as Speaker of the Legislative Council.

� The scope of the money transfers from Hizballah and Iran to the operatives of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs� Brigades -- and of course, of Islamic Jihad and Hamas -- already surpasses the subsidy these cadres receive from Arafat�s Muqata�ah (incidentally, via Jibril Rajoub, who once was careful to keep his hands clean of anything to do with terrorism). The three Abdo brothers from Nablus, for example, were discovered after their arrest by the Shin Bet to have transferred hundreds of thousands of shekels as couriers between Iranian representatives in Jordan and the organizers of terrorist attacks in the northern West Bank. And that�s just one example. Whoever pays the bills also has the last word regarding targets and methods.

The picture emerging is one of deepening, spreading chaos. Not only the PA is in a semi-dismantled state, but the Fatah movement -- the backbone of the PLO and of the regime in the territories -- is going through a rapid process of splitting up and loss of unity. Fatah is no longer able to function with any internal discipline or on the basis of any clear line. All that is left is an organizational shell and the symbol -- Arafat. In several parts of the Gaza Strip local initiatives are springing up to hold new elections for the leadership committees -- for example, in the Jabalya refugee camp -- and that is despite the opposition of the veteran leadership, and without the permission of the Chairman.

Former security chief Muhammad Dahlan and his men are hoarding weapons and building up their power base, just as their rivals are doing. There�s a new phenomenon: Weapons being smuggled into the territories are not reaching the terrorist operatives, but are remaining in store in anticipation of the internal struggle.

Hamas, for its part, is clinched in a political alliance with Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front, but it still carries out "penetrations" into Fatah and carves out chunks of influence from within it. Even Mahmud Abbas (Abu Mazen), who still has a political appetite, is trying to get back into the ring by means of dialogue with the heads of Hamas in Gaza.

All this comes within a miserable context of impoverishment and unemployment, fatigue and despair among the public at large, none of which affects Arafat�s own behavior. The leader, who, from the first day of the intifada, fashioned a chaotic atmosphere as his strategy, is still sticking to the path of anarchy. The future of Fatah doesn�t bother him in particular, nor the negation of the institutions of the PA. He sees chaos as the ultimate answer to Israel�s threat of unilateralism. In short, he is ready to reach the point of total collapse, in which the fragments of the Palestinian state-in-the-making would be smeared over Sharon�s face.

And herein lies Israel�s dilemma: The choice is between agreeing to reinstate Arafat as the supreme address on the other side of the barricade, or losing the chance of having a partner there for a Palestinian state set up by agreement. But even if Sharon were to agree to hold a dialogue with Arafat in one guise or another, without it being explicitly announced, he has no guarantee that his adversary would actually try to stop treading water or even moving in reverse. It is not worth the risk.

Arafat knows well that the chaotic situation will prevent Israel from carrying out any real disengagement from the territories. The international community is hardly craving to take on responsibility for 3 million Palestinians at a time when most of their political movements are addicted to terror. In fact, of all the ideas being thrown out into this bloody arena, there is not a single plan at the moment that could be immediately and practically translated into action.