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Ehud Ya'ari: Syriaďż˝s Silent Earthquake
Ehud Ya'ari

In the weeks that have passed since the war in Iraq, the illusion of domestic stability has been flowing out of Syria

A silent earthquake is shaking Syria. The floor is trembling under the feet of the regime. To date, these are only light tremors that are not bringing the old structures crashing down, only causing cracks in the walls. There is no immediate danger of collapse, though one of the senior officials of the Damascus regime was recently quoted as saying that "if the renovations donďż˝t come from above, there will be an explosion from below!" Or as another one put it, "Cosmetic treatment wonďż˝t be enough. What is required now is a complete surgical makeover."

Three years after becoming president, Dr. Bashar al-Asad is perceived by all those around him as an awkward disappointment. His early promises for democratic reform have not been fulfilled. Those who were tempted to believe in a "Damascus spring" back then found themselves in jail by the summer. The London-trained opthalmologist and Gameboy addict has turned out to be a young conservative, entrenched in the thinking of past generations and the language of pan-Arabism which completed its time on earth some 30 years ago. He continues to rule Syria through the apparatus of the "beneficiaries" that he inherited from his father, and in essence, he has not changed a thing.

Yet, in the weeks that have passed since the war in Iraq, the illusion of domestic stability has been flowing out of Syria. The speedy collapse of the regime of Saddam Hussein, the refusal of Saddamďż˝s army to fight for him, the hatred for the formerly ruling Iraqi Baďż˝ath Party -- all these factors have convinced many within the halls of power of the Damascus regime, and many of its opponents, that Bashar al-Asad cannot stick to his policy of foot-dragging. The lesson from Iraq is that any regime not anchored in popular support is liable to be easily uprooted. And the Syrians are aware of just how similar their model is to the one that was wiped out in neighboring Iraq.

And so, in one fell swoop, things have started to happen: In municipal elections in June, which unlike parliamentary elections relate to clan and family interests at the day-to-day level, an average of just 6 percent of registered voters bothered to go to the polls, though no less than 40,000 candidates were competing for some 8,000 positions on the village, city and district councils. It was a spontaneous show of no-confidence in a system that gives a built-in advantage to the regimeďż˝s supporters, a quiet rebellion against the Syrian Baďż˝ath Partyďż˝s stranglehold on the democratization process. So great was the embarrassment over the voter turnout that Syrian TV devoted just 15 seconds to its reporting on the local elections.

In the Syrian press, and in articles by Syrian journalists in the Lebanese press, a battle is breaking out, though still hesitantly, between rival streams within Asadďż˝s entourage. The son of the chief of staff, Gen. Hassan Turkmani, the publisher of the new Damascus weekly Black and White, has come out with unprecedently harsh attacks on the top brass of the Syrian Foreign Ministry, blaming it for the countryďż˝s diplomatic hardships. Another new organ stormed against the media establishment, with stinging criticism of the senior propagandists and journalists. Calls for "real" reform have started appearing in the official Baďż˝ath media, acknowledging that economic liberalization will not be enough. Those warnings follow a series of hastily announced measures meant to ease up overseas trade and foreign currency regulations.

The climax came in mid-July when the national leadership of the Baďż˝ath Party, headed by Asad himself, ruled that it is forbidden for members of the party and its various branches to meddle in the governmentďż˝s work. From now on card-carrying members will have no advantage when applying for bureaucratic positions. This is an extremely significant step that could even lead in the end to de-Baďż˝athification of the administration and the devaluation of the ruling partyďż˝s standing.

Against this background, the small satellite parties connected to the Baďż˝ath in the Progressive National Front have started trying to formulate the outlines of independent policies. The Communists, the Syrian Socialist Nationalist Party, the Socialist Union and the like are following in the footsteps of the illegal Kurdish "Yakiti" party and the Muslim Brotherhood in exile, by demanding an end to the monopoly on power. Asad, in response, has been forced to order the release of a few political prisoners, to allow some of the exiles to return home and to adopt a more conciliatory tone toward his opponents.

It is clear to everyone in Syria: The country is heading for change. The economic situation is ever worsening after the flow of oil from Iraq was cut off. In the international arena, Syria is facing American pressure to get out of Lebanon, to rein in Hizballah and to break ties with Hamas and Iran. And domestically, the opposition forces are feeling more freedom of action, a fact reflected in the strong disagreement within the veteran leadership over how to react. Asad, typically, has not decided what to do, but he is being buffeted by strong winds from either side. The first test will come with the replacement of the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Miro, which already has the parliament baying for its blood.