The Jerusalem Report Magazine: Columnists : Columnists Article

Click for Contents

Click here to subscribe to The Jerusalem Report

P.O. Box 1805,Jerusalem 91017
Tel. 972-2-531-5440,
Fax: 972-2-537-9489
Advertising Fax:
972-2-531-5425,
Email Editorial: [email protected]
Subscriptions: [email protected]
Web site: http://www.jrep.com

Ehud Ya'ari: Breaking Loose
Ehud Ya'ari

Arafat apparently feels the worst is behind him. The horizon has opened up again, giving him room to maneuver.

Yasser Arafat is celebrating the fall of the national unity government in Israel. It was his worst nightmare: Ariel Sharon protected by Shimon Peres. But now it�s over. The sigh of relief coming out of the Muqata�ah in Ramallah could be heard a long way off, as ex-defense minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer blindly maneuvered himself into a process that led to the resignation of the Labor ministers, and in turn, to the probable end of his reign as party leader. "Didn�t I always tell you," Arafat rebuked his loyal aides, "to just have a little patience?"

And that�s not all. There is now a chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will beat Sharon in the Likud primaries. Needless to say, Bibi is seen in the chairman�s circle as a comparatively light-weight adversary. Netanyahu�s current campaign talk in favor of deporting Arafat and dismantling the Palestinian Authority are interpreted on Arafat�s side as hollow declarations that will only make it harder for Israel to mobilize international support in the future in general.

And in another possible gain, Haifa Mayor Amram Mitzna, the clear front-runner in the Labor party primaries, is asserting that he�s ready to return to the negotiating table, and to deal with Arafat, even as the terror continues. Fantastic! So the Labor party under Mitzna�s leadership would repudiate the parameters of President Bush, and of the Quartet�s "Road Map" too, both of which demand effective security steps from the Palestinians as a condition for diplomatic reengagement.

As Arafat scours the current Israeli polls, he can only come to one conclusion: that sometime during February 2003, a right-wing religious government will rise to power in Israel. The impressive Israeli consensus on confronting Palestinian terrorism will crack under the pressure of the Labor party�s vigorous criticism, from the opposition benches, of all the government�s actions. And the rest of the world is certainly not going to want to be more Zionist than the party that has always been the backbone of the Zionist enterprise.

The trap that Arafat threw himself into with the "militarization" of the intifada is about to break asunder. So he must be asking himself how he ought to act in the run-up to the elections. What kind of background scenery should he provide? A spate of terror attacks, or a show of restraint? Perhaps a little of both?

The optimum result from Arafat�s point of view would be for the Labor party to be repelled leftward, into the lap of the novice Mitzna, and for Yossi Beilin to come back as the spiritual shepherd of Labor policy. Similarly, he would wish the Likud to be pushed rightward, into the arms of failed former prime minister Netanyahu and his agenda of rhetoric. That way the gap will widen between the two main camps in Israel, sharpening the internal polarization.

The primary objective, in any case, will be to prevent the reestablishment of a national unity government. Arafat must doubtless be troubled by the talk, so far of no practical significance, about Shimon Peres forming a joint bloc with Sharon, uniting the moderate right and the moderate left.

Arafat apparently feels that the worst is behind him. He has suppressed the attempts at a putsch in his court, silenced the demands to transfer his executive authority to a prime minister. And now the horizon has opened up again, giving him room to maneuver.

Except he knows from past experience that he cannot accurately predict what level of terrorism will have the desired effect on the elections results. Bombs in Israeli cities or attacks against the settlements? Nor does he know whether his rooting for Mitzna would influence hesitant voters to cast their ballots, or turn them away. And should he attack Sharon, or focus on Netanyahu? In short, Arafat is clear about where he�d like to be, but he isn�t so sure of how to get there.