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While Syria Sleeps
Ehud Ya'ari

A weak and na�ve Syria acts as an accelerator for Hizballah

THE MESSAGE THE AMERICANS RECENTLY CONveyed to the foreign ministers of the European Union was simple: Watch Hizballah, they warned, it has the ability -- and perhaps the intention -- of sparking an explosion that could lead to regional war.

Expectedly, the reaction varied from capital to capital. London, Paris, Rome and Madrid read the cable through different colored spectacles. So in the best tradition of diplomatic nicety, the Europeans will almost certainly send a message back to Lebanon�s patrons in Damascus, the meaning of which Syria�s president, Dr. Bashar al-Asad, will be hard pressed to decipher.

But first the facts. Thanks to arms shipments by air and sea from Teheran, Sayed Hassan Nasrallah�s men now have at least 7,000 Katyusha rockets ready to fire off to Israel. Some are heavy, long-range missiles that threaten all the Galilee up to the outskirts of Haifa (and the nearby oil refineries). Hizballah has completed building its line of forward positions along the Israeli border, complete with video cameras that track the IDF�s movements in order to learn the operational routine of its units. Iranian officers recently came to check the deployment in the field.

Very soon, Hizballah will also complete construction of its second line of defense deep in South Lebanon, meant to create a barrier against any Israeli armored advance. Suffice it to say that Hizballah is aiming for the ability to shell Israel continuously over a period of several months, and in the event that Israel mounts a retaliatory invasion, to delay its progress by several days.

The Beirut government is reconciled to the fact that the Shi�ite areas in the south have turned into "Hizballahstan." The Lebanese Army maintains a small force in the towns of Marj Ayoun and Bint Jabeil, and undertakes token vehicle patrols. There is no attempt to prevent Hizballah from preparing the front for a flare-up. On the contrary, the puppet president, Emil Lahoud extends unsolicited sponsorship to Nasrallah. And Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, a much more sophisticated player, tries to shake Syria out of its slumber but won�t dare to openly say what is really on his mind.

As for Syria, this is no longer the regime of Asad senior, but a pale replica led, in theory at least, by his son. The young president is fascinated by Nasrallah. He accepts the Hizballah secretary general�s patronizing praise, and has allowed Hizballah to hold at least one paramilitary parade on Syrian soil, in the city of Latakia.

By all accounts, Dr. Bashar al-Asad relates seriously and sincerely to Nasrallah�s anti-Israel rhetoric, even if the secretary general often sounds like he is running for election in some radical student union. There is no guarantee that during his six-year apprenticeship with Hafiz al-Asad, the son managed to absorb any of his father�s famed caution.

The people around Bashar are not experienced in high politics. Neither his brother, Maher, nor his brother-in-law Assef Shawqat, the head of intelligence, have any training in crisis management, as opposed to political maneuvering in the halls of power. The "uncles," the aides of the late Asad who at first guided the son and heir, are taking their time to retire but one by one find themselves forced to give in to old age. The chief of staff, Asli Aslan, who trained Bashar in military lore, has resigned. Others are about to follow.

What remains of the ruling elite is an unimpressive bunch of worn-out politicians and newcomers who are wet behind the ears.

Slowly and almost invisibly, an important revolution appears to be underway: Instead of absolute Syrian patronage over Lebanon, there are indications of a spillover of influence from the protectorate to its protector. Hariri, a Saudi-made billionaire, has bought himself hearts and minds in Damascus. A branch of his private bank has opened in the Syrian capital to ease the flow of funds. But he is not alone. Nasrallah also has a stable of supporters in Syria. And the Iranians, whose vice president recently visited Damascus, are laying down the law for the confused leadership there. Some Lebanese are proud that instead of Syrian hegemony over Lebanon, underlined by the presence of 30,000 soldiers and a million migrant workers, Damascus is sliding toward "political annexation" by Beirut.

Meanwhile, the great struggle has fallen by the wayside between those circles in Syria who had wanted to emulate Lebanon�s open, almost democratic model complete with multiple parties, a free press and a dominant private sector, and those who want to maintain the Baathist formula along with the bare essentials of economic reform. So far the latter have the upper hand. The reform process has halted, the economy is in continual decline and real debate is only possible in a few website chat rooms.

A Syria that can be manipulated by Hizballah, which acts, in turn, under Iranian guidance, could well miss the crucial moment when Iran and Hizballah attempt to spark a huge conflagration by means of a military provocation on Israel�s northern border.

That is the source of the worry: A weak and na�ve Syria that is locked in the slogans of the 60s acts as an accelerator for Hizballah, not a brake. The more Nasrallah is convinced that President Asad is not up to speed, the more he is convinced that he alone, in consultation with his Iranian cohorts, holds the key. And if there�ll be any hint of an American threat to Islamic revolution, he would rather preempt it with a strike at the Galilee.

This is not an imaginary scenario. It is based, in part, on information. The singular conclusion is that someone has to inject a certain amount of fear into the Syrians to get them to bring Nasrallah down from "Rabbi" status to that of client. The Euro-peans, whom the Syrians tend to take more seriously, would do better at that than the Americans. To quote Arafat, as he put it to Irish TV: "It is geopolitics, you know, geopolitics."