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Ehud Ya'ari: Meet Abu Ala

Ahmed Qurei, or as he is better known, Abu Ala, is the PLO�s ultimate smart operator. The Palestinian Authority�s new prime minister is no bookish intellectual, nor an officer of the terror apparatus. And neither is he a politician, anxious to keep his constituency happy. He is, above all, a back-room apparatchik, a money-man who has handled many millions over many years, without stirring up superfluous squabbles and without attracting unnecessary attention. It was he who built an economic empire for Yasser Arafat across three continents as the head of Samed, the investments and business arm of the PLO. Only in the last decade has he come into the limelight, even for the Palestinian public itself, because of the role he played in the Oslo Accords and then as Speaker of the Palestinian parliament.

The Israelis were very surprised at the time when it emerged that Arafat had chosen Abu Ala of all people to represent him in the negotiations. True to their form, the Israelis arrogantly underestimated him, and as a result his cunning shines through the texts of the accords and their annexes. Arafat knew then, as he knows now, why Abu Ala was the right man for the job: Firstly, because he has never disobeyed him, and if he ever disagrees with him, he will do so with great respect. Unlike Abu Mazen, his predecessor, Abu Ala won�t resign, go on leave, or slam the door. He is simply a businessman, a very shrewd one, who knows when you can rake in the profits and when you have to cut your losses.

It is not a statesman, therefore, who heads the new Palestinian cabinet, but a numbers man, in the full sense of the phrase, lacking profound ideological commitment, devoid of a real vision of the future, and without a network of alliances in his political arena. His chief qualifications are his talent for maneuver, his creativity in setting up trade-offs. He is a deal-maker, and that�s why Shimon Peres likes him, and Yossi Beilin, and even Ariel Sharon. You can do business with this man. He is direct, he is blunt, he doesn�t philosophize or give vent to reflections. He is focused and unequivocal. A pleasure to work with.

And indeed, Abu Ala accepted -- with demonstrative satisfaction -- the post of prime minister, because he believes that it is possible to cut a deal with Israel. Not, perish the thought, a genuine concrete settlement, but a mechanism for exiting the intifada, which, in any case, the Palestinians have for some time been thoroughly sick of. Such a mechanism would save Arafat and at the same time suit Sharon. And in his estimation, everyone -- including President Bush -- would ultimately be only too pleased to accept it, if he is careful enough about the way it is put together.

Abu Ala has no intention of repeating what he saw as the beginner�s errors made by Abu Mazen. He won�t declare that Palestinian violence is reprehensible terrorism, or issue a call for an end to the intifada. He won�t organize a hudna with the Islamicist terror groups under Egyptian patronage, and he will certainly never "treat Arafat," as he put it, as his predecessor did.

Instead, Abu Ala has come up with a new slogan -- "an end to chaos" -- meaning, let�s tidy up our own house. This line has a good chance of going down well with the Palestinians. They are fed up with the mess created by Arafat and his cohorts. The practical intent of the plan is to establish order in the management of the PA�s finances, but even before that, in the sphere of security. And judging by his recent utterances in private meetings with various groups, this is what Abu Ala means:

� The terrorist groups will not be disarmed, but an agreement will be reached with them providing for "restraint."

� Terrorists will not be imprisoned, but will cease carrying arms in public.

�Terror attacks on Israel will not be declared anti-patriotic acts contrary to the national interest, as they were under Abu Mazen. But there will be an understanding that explosives will not be stored in populated areas and that fire will not be opened from civilian neighborhoods.

So there will be no declarative cease-fire, � la Abu Mazen, but a de facto truce. No agreements with Hamas, but understandings. Hamas will not appoint a minister to represent it, but there will be someone it recommends at the cabinet table. Like Abu Mazen, Abu Ala preaches "national unity," but instead of basing it on the principle of ending the violence, he ties it to the "end of chaos." The difference is profound. Unlike his predecessor, Abu Ala does not dare to suggest the delegitimization of terror, but only changes in the criteria for perpetrating it. Hamas is being asked not to flaunt its weapons, and to be cautious about the selection of targets and timing of attacks. The slogan will be "Security for the Palestinians," not for Israel.

To back up this policy, Abu Ala is correcting yet another serious error made by Abu Mazen, by putting into his cabinet a solid group of heads of the Fatah�s Tanzim -- the same people who engineered Abu Mazen�s palace revolt, and who were abandoned by him when he formed his cabinet. The Tanzim is Abu Ala�s vehicle, and he knows that Arafat can easily make it toe his line, something he obviously never did for Abu Mazen.

Abu Ala is thus presenting Arafat with a formula which leaves the power in his hands. Hamas is given a guarantee that "national unity" will protect it. The Americans are being told that this is the only way to pacify the territories. And the message to Sharon is: Don�t let Arafat burn me too, the way he burned any other important figure in the Palestinian leadership over the last three years. I�m the last one left, Abu Ala is saying tacitly, and if you don�t talk business with me about a new deal, there will be no one to take over.

At Oslo, it was the same Abu Ala who offered a promise of peace in exchange for land. What he�ll be offering now is a facade of a cease-fire in exchange for immunity for terrorism. From his point of view, that�s quite some progress.