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He's Not in Control
Hirsh Goodman

Given the dynamic of hatred he has created, there is no way Arafat can tell his people not to shoot at soldiers.

It's amazing how Yasser Arafat can turn suicide bombing on again and off again. When it suits him, he allows suicide bombers into Israel; when it doesn't, he stops them completely, as he has done now in the wake of the September 11 attack on America.

Stopping Hamas and the Islamic Jihad is relatively easy. Their main operatives are known. They have a political channel that can be spoken to. And, at the moment, they are allied with Arafat in his war against Israel. They understand that it is currently more beneficial to Palestine's cause not to have Islamic suicide bombers blowing themselves up inside Israel and that it is, at the moment, prudent to be part of the coalition against international terror. Sending suicide bombers at the same time as claiming to be part of an anti-terror coalition would be too much. Hamas and the Islamic Jihad understand that: That explains their compliance with Arafat's request at this time.

But suicide bombings are only part of the problem. The wider issue is: Can Arafat deliver a cease-fire? He has tried six times and six times he has failed. The latest cease-fire hardly lasted half an hour. Despite Arafat's unequivocal declaration of a cease-fire on September 18, and a subsequent meeting between Arafat and Peres which reinforced it, each day, almost each hour, brings yet another incident and more casualties.

One does not have to be a general to figure it out. Arafat has become a captive of his street. After months of violence and counter-violence, the Palestinian street, seething with hatred as never before, wants the fight to continue. Where doing so will take them is not currently the issue. The Palestinian mood, as all the polls indicate, is absolutely against any thought of compromise with Israel. Over 80 per cent support suicide bombings, Hamas has doubled in popularity and about half say they are now fighting for the liberation of all of Palestine, not just the territories conquered in 1967.

Arafat can declare as many cease-fires as he wants. There is no way he can enforce them. He created a tempest when he declared war on Israel a year ago, and it is now beyond his control. Given the dynamic he has created of hatred and demonization of Israel, there is no way that he can now tell his people not to shoot at soldiers enforcing the occupation or at settlers stealing their land. To survive he must go with the flow � and that means claiming that attacks against soldiers and settlers are acts of liberation, not terror.

THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT ISRAEL AND THE Palestinians do not have the same definition of what constitutes terror. Israel has to defend its soldiers and citizens no matter where they live, which includes settlers. And in doing so, it will necessarily cause Palestinian casualties. By one report, nine Palestinians, including two children, were killed in one day in late September. And there we go: more funerals, more hatred, more attacks, more Israeli retaliation, more casualties and absolutely no chance at this time of a meaningful cease-fire that will allow the sides to move forward.

The prognosis is not good, and there is a palpable worsening of the situation. Palestinian hostility towards Israelis has taken on a new dimension. Journalists have felt it at joint press conferences and even friends have seen a deep change in their relationships. These days, it is absolutely politically incorrect for a Palestinian to be seen fraternizing with an Israeli.

The levels of hatred have reached unimaginable proportions. What more does one have to see than the

Hamas replica of the Sbarro Pizza restaurant after the bombing, body parts included, that was displayed in Nablus as a salute to the bomber who did it?

The chances of reconciliation are almost impossible to see, despite the potentially positive dynamic that presented itself after the September 11 attacks: Arafat and Peres have met, and so has the Israeli-Palestinian joint security committee. Both meetings could, politely, be described as a waste of time.

As people predicted from the outset, this is going to be a long, long war. If the Palestinians continue to cap suicide bombers, Israel is going to have an increasingly difficult time retaliating meaningfully for ongoing Palestinian attacks on settlers and soldiers. The Americans do not want the boat rocked, and much of the world agrees with the Palestinians that killing soldiers and settlers is not terror, but part of a legitimate freedom struggle.

Each funeral is new cause for hatred, another reason for the cease-fire not to take hold, another reason for Palestinians to move their support from Arafat to Hamas: At least religion gives one hope, even if it is for a better life in the world to come.

Whether Arafat controls or does not control the territories, therefore, is no longer a question. He doesn't. Israel must recognize this, and do some long and hard thinking. Seeking to contain the conflict is no longer enough. Its dynamic has to be changed. Initially one thought that the September 11 attack had done that. Obviously it has not. One can only wonder what more it could possibly take.