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A New Yalta
Ehud Ya'ari

The distance between Kabul and Jerusalem is much shorter than it looks on the map

The main players fighting the war against Afghanistan will have to come to some prior agreement � perhaps sooner rather than later � as to what kind of regime should take over there in the post-Taliban era. In the current round of the Game of Nations, there is tremendous sensitivity and apparent inherent contradiction amongst the states surrounding Af-ghanistan as to the final result: Pakistan rules out any regime in Kabul that isn�t tied to its apron strings; Iran is openly terrified of a �blockade�; China will find it hard to come to terms with a U.S.-Russian partnership on its doorstep. The Russians and Uzbeks have an interest in a victory of the �Northern Alliance� which is composed mainly of Uzbeks and Tajiks, and is presently supplied by Moscow.

In short, the American administration must be wary of attempts at sabotage by these nervous neighbors that will turn its task of dealing with the complex ethnic mosaic of Afghanistan into an even more complicated mission than it already is.

For that reason, some form of a parley is called for, along the lines of the 1944 Yalta conference, when the Allies decided on the shape of the post World War II world. One possible format would be the 6+2 mechanism � deliberations between the six countries bordering on Afghanistan, along with the United States and Russia. This forum has been used in the past, long before the events of September 11.

Whatever the case, the war will bring about a new division of power and influence within Afghanistan. And this redivision will have an immediate impact on the stability of Pakistan; on the fate of the Islamist rebellions in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan; and on the future of the 2 million Afghan refugees whose presence in eastern Iran has led to an acute crisis there.

The new alignment in those vast expanses will necessarily affect the Middle East. A new Yalta-type of understanding will radiate westward, influencing the rivalries in the Persian Gulf as well as the Israeli-Arab conflict. Alternatively, those trying to seize areas of influence could get into a race, or compete in trying to subvert one another, all of which would raise the tension level in our vicinity too. And in the background, one riddle remains unresolved: Will the defeat of the Taliban stoke up the �war of civilizations,� or relieve it of some of its pressure?

The linkage between the eventual arrangement in Afghanistan and an Israeli-Palestinian settlement has already been established by the plethora of statements in the United States and Europe about the need to �deal with the roots of terror�; by Israeli nervousness expressed in Prime Minister Sharon�s �Czechoslovakia� remarks, and, of course, by the leaks regarding the American intention to launch a new initiative to solve the conflict. The distance between Kabul and Jerusalem is much shorter than it looks on the map.

And so far, the signs are not good. Yasser Arafat earned the praise of President Bush not for halting terror, but because he put down pro-Bin Laden demonstrations in Gaza. Even before he�s brought about a real cease-fire by significantly reducing the volume of violence, it has already been forgotten that he himself refused to condemn Bin Laden, relying instead on the supple tongues of Nabil Sha'ath and his ilk.

The Syrians took fright following the inclusion of Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah�s operations chief, in the Americans� most-wanted list. President Bashar Asad, said to sound like he is preparing for the possibility of an economic blockade, unexpectedly adopted a line rejecting the American military campaign. The result, once again, was praise from Washington to Damascus for its help.

The Saudis continue to refuse to share information with American intelligence in their investigations into terror networks on their soil. They are trying to hide what is already clear: that the rot in the Wahhabi kingdom goes even deeper than anyone�s wildest conjecture. And so, while the Saudis go on nurturing � and funding � Islamic movements which spawn their own terror cells, they, of all people, have turned into the closest confidants of the White House and its plans for the Middle East.

The general tendency may be an American attempt to give Arafat more than Barak offered him, for a much cheaper price than was demanded of him before, with only the slightest appearance of a negotiation. To hit at terror in Afghanistan and pay the dividend to the Palestinians. To raise up from the ruins of the Taliban regime a Palestinian state as a consolation prize for the �militants,� as they are now called in polite circles.