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Hirsh Goodman: Boom Baby Boom
Hirsh Goodman

At the US Consul General's 4th of July party in Jerusalem the other night, a Palestinian friend came up and asked me whether I had heard that the Palestinian population in the occupied territories had risen by 9 percent over the past two years, the highest growth rate in the world after the Negev Beduin. If nothing else happens to end the occupation, he said, "Mother Womb" will. He added that Arafat�s adage about the womb being the best weapon the Palestinians have against Zionists was about the only true thing the Palestinian ra�is ever said.

The end to occupation may or may not happen within the next few years. The road map is there, the leaders are following it, up to a point, the Americans and Europeans are deeply involved, both sides are exhausted and realize that force has spent itself and is no longer effective, and the lessons of both Oslo and the failed Barak effort have been understood and digested. Abu Mazen, the Palestinian prime minister, seems to be saying all the right things, but is slow to move on the ground both in restructuring his government and making it effective, and in curbing armed militants who can seriously destabilize the situation. Ariel Sharon, for his part, is faced with strong opposition within his own government -- as demonstrated by the split cabinet vote on the issue of prisoner releases, where he eventually managed to muster only a small majority -- and within his own party, where he has a very crafty and popular Benjamin Netanyahu, the former prime minister, nipping at his heels.

So the road map could lead to nowhere. That makes my friend�s demographic news, delivered with enough enthusiasm and festivity to make one feel the 4th of July party was being held to celebrate Palestinian fertility, not America�s independence, all the more interesting.

Demography is not something new to us. We�ve known that the number of Arabs between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River will be greater than the number of Jews by 2010, just seven years from now. And that�s without the Palestinians setting new birth-rate records -- which, incidentally, connect to the protracted curfews the Palestinians have been forced to live with since Operation Defensive Shield was launched some 16 months ago. Now, with 2010 around the corner, Israel is left with the following principal options:

(a) Reach a peace accord based on a two-state solution.

(b) Continue with the status quo. Disregard the demography, continue to give Israeli Arabs full citizenship and continue to occupy the territories by force. In such a scenario, the occupied Palestinians have no citizenship and, therefore, no rights in the Jewish state, which will be limited to pre-1967 Israel with all of Jerusalem as its capital. Israel could argue that it is not an apartheid state, since the areas under occupation are considered technically temporarily under Israeli control, waiting to be given up if and when the right circumstances appear. Israel, the argument goes, has never annexed these territories other than Jerusalem, so the citizens of these territories are outside the Israeli democratic system.

(c) Take unilateral action. Failing a two-state solution and faced with the realization that more and more Palestinians see a one-state solution -- which, through the womb, will in time regain them all of Palestine -- Israel could move on its own, as it has by building the security wall. The form that unilateral action takes, though, depends on the political make-up of the Israeli government at the time it is taken: It could involve a decision to uproot dozens of settlements, all of those in Gaza and those on the West Bank that are contiguous with large Palestinian population centers or so isolated that they are difficult to defend. If the government retains its current composition and Sharon is unable to move forward on peace, the unilateral decision could involve a wall built to de facto divide the West Bank into small, detached, cantons joined only by narrow corridors with no direct access to Jerusalem. The security fence would twist and wind through the country like a slithering snake, keeping Jews and Palestinians apart but perennially at war.

There are countless other options one could list to deal with the absence of peace and the demographic threat. The point is that while Israel does have options, even unilateral ones, none of them are good for it as a democracy or the Palestinians as a people -- even though they would stave off the direct threat to Israel as a democratic Jewish country in the absence of peace.

Unilateralism, then, is the most probable Israeli response to the demographic threat. We always have that choice.

Nine percent population growth is something to worry about, but the worry should not necessarily be only Israel�s. Assuming no peace, the consequences of that kind of growth for the Palestinians would be horrendous. The devastation of the past two and a half years of war on the PA economy, the reduction of much of Gaza to rubble, unemployment of over 60 percent, demolished schoolrooms and deteriorating medical facilities -- all this will only be exacerbated if the war continues and the wall goes up.

Given the absence of peace, the 9 percent could be a boomerang for the Palestinian people. It could mean another generation brought up in refugee camps, fed by UNRWA, living with dysfunctional government unable to provide education or health services -- a sad state of affairs where organizations such as Hamas thrive and suicide bombing seems a good way out of things. If anything, the implications of the demographics should be a main reason for the Palestinians to pursue peace. The alternative is a society of bedlam, chaos, lawlessness and no hope. The demographic future is a weapon all right: It is a double-edged sword and something whose consequences should be carefully considered before it becomes a reality.