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Ehud Ya'ari: The Real Issue
Ehud Ya'ari

Sharon apparently has an interest in Mitzna�s defeat being a measured one, rather than a trouncing

Ariel Sharon, a lion in winter, is strolling toward victory in the January 28 election. That�s the unanimous verdict of the pollsters, at least, and since my wife subscribes to the same view, no further proof is necessary. But what kind of victory will it be? One that leads Sharon straight into the open arms of the shrill settler�s lobby? Or will it be a springboard for establishing a centrist government? A corridor to a coalition that will teeter on the brink of blackmail by the hardly Zionist, ultra-Orthodox parties and their Sephardi Shas relations? Or a skip into a solid secular alliance that can, and should, invite religious parties to join, without them having the power of veto?

The future of the new government will probably be decided by the quality of the campaign mounted by Labor leader Amram Mitzna and whether or not it leaves the door open for national unity. So far his strategy appears to be confrontational yet indecisive at one and the same time. He still has to make up his own mind whether he is leading the Labor party to a point from which it can serve as a bridge for a new government of national unity, or whether to carry on drifting to the left pole of Beilinism.

Mitzna has a few weeks to come up with answers to the following three questions:

1. Is he going to correct the gratuitous opening mistake he made by declaring himself ready to sit down and negotiate with Yasser Arafat, a man that he himself calls a "terrorist"? Those Israelis who wish Mitzna well and experienced American friends alike are pressing him to stick to talking about returning to negotiations with a "responsible leadership" on the Palestinian side. If he doesn�t get rid of the impression that he intends to relegitimize the rais, then he will be dragging his party into a barren opposition.

2. Moreover, he must clarify whether he is prepared to make concessions to the Palestinians beyond the Clinton (and Barak) parameters of December 2000. And if so, where will the additional concessions come? On the issue of refugees? Temple Mount? The settlement blocs? Or perhaps all of the above? Up until now, Mitzna has given the public to suspect that he could lead Israel into making far-reaching concessions -- while failing to get a Palestinian signature on the dotted line again. The electorate doesn�t believe in such a naive policy.

3. And isn�t there a problematic double assumption at the core of the program that Mitzna has presented? He assumes that a military knockout is neither possible nor desirable, therefore he is committing himself to some "shortcuts" such as unilaterally dismantling the settlements of the Gaza Strip, and as a second phase, if negotiations with the Palestinians don�t yield an agreement within a year, unilaterally withdrawing from settlements in the West Bank. He also implicitly assumes that a political solution is not within reach. So he is ready to reduce the military pressure on the terror organizations and effectively leave them in control in the areas from which Israel will withdraw. That effectively amounts to handing Arafat independence without any commitment on his part to peace.

It must be said, to Mitzna�s credit, that he is several times more thoughtful and certainly more realistic in private conversations. But in his speeches, he comes across differently. There is a significant gap between the soundtrack of his elections campaign so far, and the scenario he actually envisages. This dissonance must be corrected, and quickly, otherwise Mitzna will be trapped by his own amateurism.

The morning after the elections, Mitzna will be awakened by a phone call from Sharon, with a generous offer to bring him in on the basis of government guidelines built on the Bush sequence. If the Labor party gains 22-23 Knesset seats or more, Mitzna could, if he wanted, lead his party in an attempt "to help Sharon to change." If Labor comes in with less, though, Mitzna may face the danger of a swift putsch within the party. In any case, the left of the Labor party would be pushing him into the opposition.

How paradoxical it is, given the old personal animosity between the two, that Sharon apparently has an interest in Mitzna�s defeat being a measured one, rather than a trouncing. The surest way for that to come about would be for Labor to announce in advance that it would view such a partnership positively. We haven�t heard that yet.

Rightists Avigdor Lieberman and Effie Eitam, together with Benjamin Netanyahu, now beaten and malleable, are keen for a National -- or rather Nationalist -- Coalition without the Unity. Mitzna has the power to prevent such a worrying development by insisting on a unity government of national compromise and consensus.

The latest surveys suggest, given Labor�s poor showing, that Mitzna may end up leaving Sharon to fend for himself on the right, instead of throwing him a rope to draw him into the center. Mitzna can be the raging bull for now. But he should remember that even boxers in the ring hug once the winner is declared.